Mountain biking has seen more ups and downs than a flow trail over the past five years. A pandemic-induced spike in bike sales and trail use sent mountain bike participation in the U.S. to levels unseen since the 1990s, with new riders saddling up for the first time, and former riders hitting the trail for the first time in a long time. While overall participation appears to have grown over the past five years, a report by the Sports and Fitness Industry Association (SFIA) suggests that among core riders, enthusiasm may be waning.
Nearly 9M in the U.S. biked off road in 2022
According to SFIA survey data, nearly nine million people in the United States rode a bicycle off-road at least once in 2022, far above the 6.9 million who reported doing so 15 years ago in 2007. It’s a big number to be sure, though to put that into perspective it represents about 2.9% of the US population over age six. The SFIA conducts its sports participation study each year, asking a representative sample of 18,000 individuals ages six and older which sports and activities they participated in during the previous year. The authors note that the data isn’t perfect, though many in the industry rely on the annual report to spot important trends.
The survey data shows mountain bike participation growing overall, a finding that matches what many of us have observed over the past few years. And while growth among casual riders is trending upward, according to the survey data, participation among those who report riding 13 or more times per year has been declining since 2018.
On an average annual basis, the SFIA found that casual rider participation is up 2.4% over the past five years, and core participation is down 0.9%. Looking at the 1-year and 3-year trends, the difference is even more dramatic, with core ridership declining more steeply.
So what could be driving these trends? To get an idea, I reached out to several folks within the mountain bike industry to get their perspectives. I also looked at what’s been happening in the sport over the past five years.
New rider initiatives seem to be paying off
Overall mountain biking participation had been growing steadily over the past decade, and the COVID-19 pandemic added gasoline to the flames.
“It’s no surprise that growth in new riders is being documented because we know a bunch of that came from COVID,” said Ashley Korenblat, CEO of Western Spirit in Moab, UT and the Managing Director for Public Lands Solutions, a non-profit that helps communities incorporate outdoor recreation into their economic development strategies.
“But I would say that there’s another more sustainable group of new riders coming from these new trail systems in communities that haven’t been known for mountain bike trails.”
With more trails cropping in more places over the past five years, it’s easier for new riders to try the sport and casually participate without having to travel far from their homes.
Not only that, more ski resorts have added summer bike parks, giving visitors the opportunity to ride casually once or twice a year while on vacation even if they don’t mountain bike at home.
Just as trails have become more accessible, bikes have too. Gene Hamilton, mountain bike skills coach and founder of Better Ride, told me “bike geometry and bigger wheels have made mountain biking so much safer and easier.” Electric mountain bikes in particular allow riders to participate without having to devote as much time to riding and building fitness.
More young riders
The National Interscholastic Cycling Association (NICA) has introduced thousands of teenagers to mountain biking since its start in 2009. Former NICA Executive Director Austin McInerny told Singletracks in 2016, “NICA is in the business of creating the next generation of cyclists, not racers. I’d like to see us help foster a continuum of cycling, from the Stryder to the 14” mountain bike, to middle school cycling, high school, college, and beyond into their own parenting years.”
Today there are high school mountain bike leagues in more than 30 states, and for many the sport has become another seasonal sports activity, just like softball or baseball.
According to the researchers behind the SFIA report, new sport participants tend to come in at the casual level and some may decide they enjoy it enough to increase their level of participation in the future. However, some sports do a better job converting casual participants to core, and the researchers note the current trend is toward people spending a little bit of time in a number of activities, rather than devoting a lot of time to just one or two. It would seem that our collectively shortened attention spans are affecting sports too.
Where are core riders going?
This is a tough question to answer. Although some riders may be leaving the sport entirely, it’s more likely a number of core riders are simply riding less often. Hamilton thinks the same purpose-built trails that are attracting new, more casual mountain bikers could be causing more experienced riders to lose interest.
“If the amount of core riders is decreasing, I think it has to do with the lack of truly challenging trails being built,” said Hamilton. “Overcoming challenges is rewarding! If after a few years, you can ride every trail in your area well, it becomes boring,” he said.
Hamilton also talked about the representation of riders in media.
“I’ve never opened up a ski magazine or snowboard magazine and seen a shot of beginners on a beginner hill,” he said. “You know, it’s usually one of the best in the world doing something really cool. So we need to give people something to aspire to, and I do think that we’ve dropped the ball on that a little bit.”
Hamilton built his business around mountain bikers looking to take their riding to the next level, and in most cases going from casual to core requires an investment of both time and money. Joe McEwan, founder of UK bike brand Starling Cycles, also suggests that making the leap can be daunting.
“There’s very few youngsters, I suppose it’s just too expensive,” said McEwan. “The races in particular have many more riders in the older categories, but that might just be enduro.”
Indeed, some core participants may simply be aging out, or at the very least, riding less as they get older. Time will tell if high school athletes and pandemic riders stick with mountain biking and perhaps increase their participation levels, though to Korenblat, that’s beside the point.
“I don’t think there’s a direct connection between the number of core cyclists and the health of the industry,” she said. “I think there’s a huge marketplace of casual riders, and the nicer we are to them, and the more welcoming we are to them, the better off our industry is going to be.”
Still, if core ridership is indeed in decline, brands that cater to core riders will need to adapt.
“Core rider decline will have a big impact on Starling,” said McEwan. “As a niche brand, we do sell more to experienced riders.”
Given the recent high demand for his skills clinics, which tend to attract dedicated, core riders, Hamilton is skeptical that core ridership is actually decreasing. But if it is, he says it won’t be good for business.
Portrait of a core mountain biker
Most of the folks I spoke with are skeptical of the label “core” as a way of classifying and dividing riders. After all, riding once a week might sound like a lot to some folks, but not a lot to someone who races. In a recent survey of Singletracks readers, 90% of respondents reported riding at least once a week, which works out to 50+ times a year.
The SFIA, in contrast, defines a core mountain biker as someone who rides 13+ times per year off-road. For paved-surface (road) biking, the group defines core participation at 26+ times per year. In a sport like downhill snow skiing, there isn’t a distinction in the report; if you ski once, you’re a skier.
Survey authors note their method “provides a high degree of statistical accuracy” and that “a sport with a participation rate of five percent has a confidence interval of plus or minus 0.32 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level.”
Mountain biking participation is well below five percent participation according to the report, so the data should be taken with a slightly larger grain of salt.
One thing that isn’t clear from the report is where gravel riding fits. The researchers note that respondents simply fill in the number of times they participated in an activity as listed in the survey. Given the choices “Bicycling (Mountain/Non-Paved Surface)” and “Bicycling (Road/Paved Surface),” it seems likely most respondents included gravel riding in the former category rather than the latter. With the growth of gravel biking events over the past few seasons, this suggests even the modest overall growth seen in mountain bike participation could itself be a mirage.
What the future holds
Seeing the number of mountain bikes sold during the pandemic and the still crowded trailhead parking lots, it’s hard to believe core mountain bike ridership is in decline, and there’s a chance it isn’t. Perhaps there are fewer core riders but they are riding more often. Perhaps the number of core, core riders — those who ride once a week or more — is increasing. Either way, core participation isn’t everything.
“If we really want to be effective politically, we need numbers, not enthusiasm,” said Korenblat. “It’s not about a small group of passionate people. What we want is a large group of people who care.”
Been riding mountain bikes since ‘89.
I’m 64 and underwent Cancer treatment a couple years ago.
I bought a Trek Rail7 and it’s allowed me to ride more than ever and I can ride with the fast guys again.
My E-Bike has given me my life back. It’s the best money I ever spent.
Spot on Gene, “lack of truly challenging trails being built”
I think it has more to do with bikes being overbuilt and too capable. If you want the trails to be challenging, go grab a hardtail or a fully rigid or a gravel bike. You can make the trails more challenging by using a bike that isn’t a monster truck.
Don’t forget, core riders age. They are getting older and new riders have different priorities. The scene is just different than 90’s or early 2000’s. Mountain biking is alive and well though. Just a perspective from an aging core rider.
And even more different than the 70’s. Into the 90’s the roadies were no longer referring to us as stoners on bikes.
Im 53 years old. I started riding mountain bikes in the mid ’80s then after I graduated college I stopped riding in the mid-90s. I picked up Motocross and left mountain bike in storage. When the pandemic hit most of the Motocross tracks shut down. I bought another mountain bike and since then I’ve been riding at least three times a week. I still have my dirt bike bit I MTB more.
Nice article! I would agree that age has a great effect on the decline of our core riders. I would say that the frequency of mtb riding has dropped and replaced by other riding types and not associated with people leaving the mtb world. The group I ride with are framing the 60 years of age marker. Back 20-30 years ago, riding 5 days a week was our norm. As we have been aging, our riding has moved from riding MTB to DH/MTB to mostly MTB to MTB/Gravel to mostly Gravel. I am still riding 4 days per week, but it would be 70% gravel and 30% mtb. My aging body can’t take the hits as well as it used to – lol. Whether I am trail or gravel riding, I don’t see much in the way of younger riders out there. Too bad, as we can all agree, riding is just an awesome sport. Us hard core riders don’t quit the ride, we just slowly drop our frequency and ride off somewhere quiet to die. I am hoping that an e-bike will extend my usefulness as a rider, but once again, I see myself and fellow riders moving towards an e-gravel bike before we buy up an e-mtb. I hopped on my first mtb bike in 1984 and its been a very, very long ride for me. Long live the ride my brothers and sisters.
The E-bike saved the life of one of our core riders when he started approaching 70. Now he rides every weekend with the guys and ladies of the club, on hus e-bike. When we suffering climbing, he climbs whistling. Happier than ever.
He knows all the trail by heard, so he’s à great asset
He’d have died if he had to stay in front of the télévision.
100% agree with the lack of challenging trails. I’m 54 and have mtb’d since the early 90s. In the early 2010s I began doing more road riding. Mainly because for fitness, it was easier to roll out the front door and back home in 2-2.5 hrs. Though I live in Seattle fairly close to quality trail systems, it’s a half-day commitment getting ready, driving out, riding, getting back, etc.
This next statement might not be popular. But, if I’m going to make the commitment to a day on the trails I want fun. The trend in flow trails is boring. Grinding up a fire road or climbing trail just to hold on and let gravity take over on the way down burm after burm isn’t fun. I want undulating terrain, views, roots and rocks, ups and downs, single & double track that challenges and delivers a full experience. For me it’s about getting outside, exploring and an afternoon of adventure rather than a thrill ride. That said, if the burmed out bike parks get more people out on the trails for the first time, that’s great! But let’s not forget there’s more to mountain biking that the downhill back to the car.
Singletracks has a pretty large audience. Maybe you should post a simple poll or two to address the topic.
How many times a week does a core rider hit the trail?
1.) 2 days a week
2.) 3 days a week
3.) 4 or more days a week.
Are you, or is a friend a “core” rider? If so, how has the frequency of riding changed over the last 18 months?
1.) Rides more
2). Rides less
3). No real change in the amount of riding.
Personally, I’d consider a core rider as one that rides more than twice per week. This rider would be putting in miles, gaining skills even if by default over time, and would be consuming MTB products fairly consistently, and would be up to date on tech/gear and terrain.
However, interesting points made in the text for sure. I’d echo the lack of challenging trails as a reason.
Pfft! Labels are not always describing the contents of the package.
I want to see you adhere to that while under chemotherapy. Annnnnd continue with your vocation at the same time.
So you’re saying the survey should include the question put to the MTB community as how many times per week do you ride while under chemotherapy?…is that statistically useful info?
@hazard, we actually posted this survey last month:
https://www.singletracks.com/community/how-often-do-you-mountain-bike/
Doesn’t necessarily define what’s core or not, and I think that’s kind of up for interpretation on the research too. Looks like the majority of people who responded to our survey ride 2-3 times per week. I’d agree with you on the frequency.
Interesting! Nearly 60% of respondents are what would be considered “core”!
It’s an interesting topic, which I’m not sure will be settled to everyone’s agreement, sort of like the “All Mountain” thing!
IMO, 13+ off-road rides per year is not “Core” and therefore I consider the survey results inconclusive or maybe even flawed. I think most of us would agree an average of 1 ride per month is not “Core.” In eye-balling these charts, if you combine the two lines, the trend is rather flat overall. Personally, I don’t think there is a lack of challenging trails – would you really stop riding a minimum of maybe once a week because you can’t find a local double-black?
Thanks for this article, Jeff, I think there are some very interesting trends to be teased out about mountain biking specifically. However, it’s worth noting that this downward trend in “core” participation applies across the entire outdoor industry. As I wrote in a recent article:
Even though top-line participation in outdoor sports is increasing, the latest data from 2021 shows that “core” participation is decreasing. “Core” participation is defined as someone who goes outdoors at least 51 times per year, and this cohort of the top line participation has decreased from “71.9% in 2007 to 58.7% of the participant base in 2021,” according to OutdoorIndustry.org. (https://outdoorindustry.org/resource/2022-outdoor-participation-trends-report/)
So, while I think it is interesting to look at the things affecting mountain biking in particular, I think to understand why this is happening, we would need to zoom out a lot further than just the mountain bike industry and look at nationwide trends connected to technology, outdoor access, urbanization, fitness, and more. Problem is, it’s super difficult to generate an accurate analysis at that level. The best analyses we have are only educated guesses.
Good insights Greg and it sounds like the Outdoor Industry research fits with what the SFIA is saying about folks diversifying their activities. Definitely a lot of factors driving this.
Interesting article. I’ve only been mountain biking about 25 years but have seen the changes. It used to be that the majority of riders at the trailhead were 20, 30 and 40 somethings. A lot of us were developing paunches and wanted something fun to get back into shape. Over the years I’ve seen a few “age out” some have passed away and others due to health reasons couldn’t continue. But I don’t see as many youngsters as I used to. I’m 68 and switched to an ebike a while back and it reinvigorated me and made me want to ride everyday. I’m having so much fun again and I can hang with the kids (40’s & 50’s). Trails have definitely got more crowded over the years and the more technical trails have kind of opened up for us but like the article says, it’s getting hard to find the truly difficult trails in our area. If you’re not into bike parks we have to make multi-day trips. Mostly Utah and Colorado to find the true double blacks. I’m not sure if it has anything to do with the bickering that goes on among us but I know it can’t help.
I definitely think the definition of core rider should be re-evaluated or maybe there needs to be a new category called “real core riders” who ride 3+ times a week. And as a real core rider, who returned to the sport after an injury sabbatical, it’s a much different sport, driven by marketing instead of mountain bikers. Back in the day the pioneers were also bike designers out of need for a better faster safer bike. And instead of living to buy lift tickets all over the country to try out gravity, we were busy blazing new technical trails to ride. And uphill was revered as much as downhill, maybe even moreso. I think core riders are on the descent due to age, and due to the feeling of being pushed out of a sport they loved for decades. Case in point, when I rode with others back in the day, when we stopped for a break we talked about the trail, and nowadays everyone talks about forks, transmission, shocks, pedals, etc etc etc. I used to be more about the rider, and now it’s more about the bike.
There was no notable decline in attendance or racers at the Sea Otter Classic this year. 75K+ enthusiasts into the sport of biking. I will say the eMtnBikers are becoming more and more hardcore. But organic mtn bikers still dominate the racing scene.
If you want the sport to grow for everyone, then you need to follow the sport of skiing/snowboarding. Local bike parks should offer amenities like a snack shack serving hamburgers/sandwiches, ice cream, health snacks, drinks and even beer. Just parking a food truck would help along with some benches. Have a mobile bike repair truck on busy days. In other words, like ski resorts offer more than just biking and create terrain for all riders, easy to expert.
Hello,
I live in à Paris suburb and can bike to work – in fact my ride to work is 50% mtb trail. So I ride seven times à week 15 miles morning an evening plus 25-35 miles saturday plus 4 or 5 rendo’s à year40 to 50 miles.
Guess I’m à core rider 🙂
Do some locations in the US permit this?
13 rides a year is core? Really??
I don’t understand why you wouldn’t add gravel to the survey to distinguish between the three major categories for more clarity on where riders are spending their time.
I ride 80% Gravel, 10% MTB, 10% Paved, but this survey would think I’m 90% MTB. Years ago I was a roadie, but moving to a higher population area and with the introduction of cell phones I switched to gravel and MTB. Regarding MTB, due to my age, fitness level and three serious shoulder injuries from crashing I switched to less MTB, less technical and I’m “trying” to behave and slow down a little. I don’t own an e-bike but see a gravel capable e-bike in my future when I can’t pedal up the hills easy enough or go the distance that I would like to ride.
We’ve got several high schools that have mountain bike teams bringing some younger riders in, and we’ve got a lot of older 50+ riders like me still doing laps around the same trails we helped build in the 90’s. Increasingly, us older riders are migrating to gravel, which I now do about 50% of the time. The middle though seems pretty sparse, and that also holds true for the demographics of who shows up for trail work parties – kids and old men. I’m am seeing an increasing number of “One Wheel” riders on our local trails, and a fair number of cheap eBikes ridden by some guy wearing a baseball cap and sneakers. Our trails have very little elevation change, so eBikes are a joke here.
I’m really not sure why any of this matters. Unless, of course, you’re making money off of people who enjoy mountain biking.
It’s a valid question. Personally I get a lot of enjoyment and physical benefits from riding regularly, and at times encouraging others to do the same seems like the right thing to do. In our conversation Korenblat pushed back on the idea that MTB evangelizing is helpful/necessary, though I’m still not sure myself. For example, being a good friend sometimes means reaching out and saying, “I noticed you aren’t riding as frequently as you used to. Is everything ok? Is there anything I can do to help?”